Likely Reduced Rainfall and Higher Temperatures During This Year’s Monsoon in Nepal

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has released projections indicating below-average rainfall and higher temperatures across Nepal during this year’s monsoon season. Meteorologist Sudarshan Humagain of the department stated that the rainfall and temperature forecasts were made considering the conditions of El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). According to the projections, from May 31 to October 1, there is a 35 to 65 percent probability of reduced rainfall and increased temperatures over most areas.

While some regions of Nepal are expected to receive average rainfall, the majority of locations are anticipated to experience below-average precipitation. Sudarshan Humagain from the department’s climate analysis division explained that these projections are based on climate model assessments from the World Meteorological Organization’s Climate Information Production Centers and evaluations from the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF).

The SASCOF meeting held in Male, Maldives, included participation from meteorologists representing nine countries, including Nepal. Currently, the Indian Ocean is neutralizing the ENSO conditions and trending toward El Niño. Climate expert and disaster specialist Dr. Dharma Raj Upreti noted that although rainfall might be adequate until mid-June, dryness is likely toward the end of June, with a possible resurgence of monsoon activity by late September.

This year’s monsoon is projected to bring below-average rainfall with a 55 to 65 percent likelihood to the southern parts of Karnali Province, most of Lumbini Province, eastern Madhesh Province, and southern Koshi Province. Similarly, most areas of Sudurpashchim Province, western Madhesh Province, and central Koshi Province are expected to see below-average rainfall with a probability ranging from 45 to 55 percent.