How Did the United States Get Trapped in a ‘Formidable Situation’ of Its Own Making?
Analysts suggest that ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have brought the United States close to a historic strategic defeat. Iran is preparing to face American pressure and possible military action while maintaining its dominance over the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf countries have begun bilateral talks with Tehran for regional security and stability and have sown the seeds for a defensive alliance. July 6, Kathmandu.
According to Middle East experts, the U.S. is nearing a historic “strategic defeat.” The U.S. initiated war against Iran under Israel’s encouragement. It has now been five months since the war began. U.S. President Donald Trump continues issuing daily threats and expressing hopes for negotiations. However, analysts note that Iran is unlikely to relinquish its newfound dominance over the Strait of Hormuz.
Abandoning control of the Strait of Hormuz means losing grip over the global economic system. For Iran, whose war cannot be won militarily, this is its most significant leverage. Iran has concluded that the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S. is effectively over. Therefore, Iran is prepared to endure potential military strikes from the Trump administration. Iran has not surrendered. The Revolutionary Guards and their Axis of Resistance allies have escalated the conflict.
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt have become targets. Syria may next be in the crosshairs. Late Wednesday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated that talks to reopen maritime routes with Oman were “forward-looking.” He added the agreement would proceed “if no third party obstructs the process.”
George Cafiero, CEO of Washington-based risk consultancy Gulf State Analytics, said the Trump administration is trapped in an “extremely difficult situation of its own making.” He explained that Washington faces two options: either continue a war it cannot win or accept a diplomatic settlement that inflicts significant political damage on President Trump.
According to analysts at IBIS, this marks “the first major step in the decline of American global power.” In 1956, when Britain and France, alongside Israel, took control of the Suez Canal, their decline began; the U.S. may face a similar trajectory. IBIS warned that escalating the conflict would create “a new structure of indefinite and aggressive containment against Iran.”
The foundation for such conflict is forming in the Middle East. Iraq, the region’s second-largest oil exporter, has become a base for drone and missile attacks against Saudi Arabia and Jordan. These strikes are carried out by militant groups that nominally belong to the Iraqi military but are armed and led by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
Saudi Arabia has abandoned its neutrality policy. It retaliated for a drone strike on its energy infrastructure on July 29. In cooperation with the U.S., it has conducted joint airstrikes against Iran-backed militants throughout Iraq. Iran and its Axis of Resistance partners remain committed to implementing their strategy.
This helps counter Iran’s “very cheap yet highly effective” drone technology. Iran perceives these countries as American allies in the war. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman intervened on Sunday to urge Trump not to escalate tensions against Tehran.
According to IBIS, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have come to understand one thing: Iran’s attacks are not just regional—they threaten the global economic order. Tehran is exerting significant pressure on the U.S. to end the war “on any terms.” This scenario was a “disaster they anticipated but failed to prevent.”
IBIS states the only way for GCC members to mitigate this impact is to develop their own bilateral talks with Tehran while maintaining relations with Washington.
Saudi Arabia announced plans to establish a multinational maritime defense coalition aimed at ensuring freedom of maritime operations in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and Gulf of Aden. Cafiero noted that the crisis has prolonged and spread since late February, leading to a shift in Riyadh’s outlook.
Saudi Arabia prioritizes diplomacy but is demonstrating a strong willingness to respond militarily, in measured terms, to halt attacks. IBIS added that while Gulf countries are reluctant to be drawn deeply into war with Iran, at some point “they will have to endure and participate.”
(Source: South China Morning Post)