Latest Update on Flood Risk: Clearing Up Misinformation

Authorities have stated that due to difficulties in obtaining information from the high Himalayan region, various initial estimates and misinformation have spread. The incident in the remote area led to uncertainty about the cause of the flood, as satellite imagery was unavailable and helicopters could not reach the site, resulting in numerous speculations. A sudden flood in the Bhote Koshi area of Rasuwa caused significant loss of lives and property. Initially, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and other government agencies were unable to confirm the cause, leading to guesses such as an earthquake or the bursting of a glacial lake. However, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology confirmed the following day that the flood was caused by a landslide. Meanwhile, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reported seismic activity in the area.

According to officials, the number of recovered bodies due to the flood has reached 626, while approximately 2,500 people remain missing. Around 4,500 individuals have been rescued. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology stated that despite some rainfall, there is currently no risk of a major flood. Senior meteorologist Bibhuti Pokharel said, “There has only been light rain, and the chance of heavy rainfall is low.” However, senior hydrologist Binod Parajuli warned that due to the formation of two lakes below the landslide zone, the flood risk still persists.

“There is a lake situated between the mountain area below the landslide and above the slope, and another lake formed by a landslide damming a stream,” he explained. “Both lakes are unstable because they are located within landslide zones and could burst as they gradually fill.” He added that although these lakes lie at elevations of 4,000 and 3,000 meters and present risk, communities in lower areas have been alerted accordingly. Although there was speculation that the landslide moved toward Tibet, investigations have confirmed it was directed within Nepal. “Satellite images show that the flood did not originate from Tibet, but from the Nepal-China border,” he said.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) noted that the lack of information about the high mountainous affected area resulted in different assumptions being made. “We did not have information about the state of the high Himalayan region, so people began to speculate. Some said it was a landslide; others claimed a glacial lake had burst. This is a gap in scientific data,” stated Dharma Raj Upreti, head of the Authority. “It is now imperative to understand this situation and develop an early warning system, which will require significant investment.”