Floods in Bhote Koshi and Trishuli: What Risks Does Rapid Himalayan Melting Pose to India’s Economy?

A new study reveals that the Himalayan region is entering a dangerous phase due to the accelerated melting of glaciers, unstable glacial lakes, and weak mountain monitoring systems. The findings come in the aftermath of devastating floods in Nepal and Tibet that resulted in over 1,300 fatalities and widespread destruction, highlighting growing risks stemming from the rapidly changing Himalayan environment. The report, prepared with technical support from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), the Integrated Mountain Initiative, and the G.B. Pant National Himalayan Environment Institute, shows that glacier melt rates have increased by 65 percent in the current decade.

According to the study, out of nearly 40,000 glaciers in the Himalaya-Karakoram region, only 21 are being monitored extensively and regularly. Rising temperatures cause ice at glacier margins to melt faster, and reduced snowfall leads to glacial lakes drying up. Permafrost—permanently frozen ground covered by ice—also begins to thaw with increasing temperatures, escalating hazards in high mountain areas, the report states.

In July, the Indian government informed the Constituent Assembly that by 2025, following scientific evaluations of 189 high-risk glacial lakes, 56 have been classified as “extremely high risk.” The Central Water Commission of India monitors 2,485 glacial lakes larger than 10 hectares located in Himalayan watersheds. A notable event in 2023 saw a glacial lake burst in Sikkim, leading to at least 70 deaths and significant damage to roads, bridges, and hydropower infrastructure.

The new study also sheds light on the heavy dependency on Himalayan water sources and its substantial economic impact. Himalayan water contributes about 20 percent to India’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP), playing a vital role in wheat, rice, and tea cultivation, hydropower generation, and pilgrimage-related income. However, hilly states derive only about 5 percent of these benefits. This disparity underscores the critical need for cross-border monitoring, shared risk information systems, early warning mechanisms, and joint investments in preparedness to safeguard not only lives but also the livelihoods and economies of millions dependent on the mountains.