Powerful El Niño Could Cause Over 451,000 Additional Deaths Worldwide by End of February

A recent study warns that the powerful El Niño this year could lead to more than 451,000 additional deaths globally by the end of February. The study estimates approximately 66,800 extra deaths in Africa’s Sahel region, 15,800 in India, and 13,300 in Brazil. Researchers emphasize the urgent need for heat-related early warning systems, cooling centers, water and healthcare services, and targeted support for vulnerable populations.

October 7, Bengaluru – The intense heat, drought, wildfires, and water scarcity caused by this year’s strong El Niño may result in around 451,000 additional deaths worldwide by late February, according to a new study. Investigators at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab have published projections of excess heat-related fatalities from June 2026 through February 2027. The study highlights that the effects will be most severe in poor and developing countries, where climate change exacerbates food insecurity and rising energy costs.

Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the study, noted that although El Niño is expected to conclude by February, its heat-related impacts will persist beyond that period. He explained that with temperatures already elevated in many hot regions, the risk remains exceptionally high. The researchers analyzed data on how high temperatures affect mortality rates at more than 24,000 locations worldwide and compared these with seasonal temperature forecasts.

The Sahel region in Africa is projected to suffer the greatest impact, with an estimated 66,800 additional deaths. Other affected regions include the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, with a combined estimated excess mortality of 19,400; Indonesia with 19,300; India with 15,800; and Brazil with 13,300 additional deaths.

To mitigate risks from extreme heat, the researchers stress the importance of implementing heat-related early warning systems, establishing cooling centers, ensuring adequate water and health services, protecting outdoor workers, and providing targeted aid to elderly and vulnerable groups. They also recommend financial preparedness to mobilize resources before severe heat events occur.

Abhiyanant Tiwari, a heat specialist at NRDC India, stated that the report should be viewed not as fearmongering but as a prompt for immediate preparation and effective implementation. “The true value of preparedness is not measured by how many warnings we issue but by how effectively we protect people and reduce preventable deaths,” he said.

Although El Niño is a natural climate system, this year’s event is exceptionally strong and coincides with an already warming planet. According to the Climate Impact Lab, global land temperatures during this period could be about 1.2 degrees Celsius above average years, with heatwave days increasing by up to 44 percent. This provides an early indication of the severity of heat conditions that may become more common over the next decade due to climate change.