US-Iran Conflict: Four Possible Scenarios
It is believed that the United States is engaging in talks for a second phase of ceasefire negotiations with Iran. Although the 20-hour discussions last Sunday yielded no conclusive results, a nearly two-week ceasefire remains in effect. Just one day after the inconclusive talks, President Donald Trump announced a naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz targeting Iran. How should the failure of these initial talks be interpreted, and what are the prospects for future negotiations? Are Iran and the US heading toward a controlled conflict, or an uncontrollable large-scale war? Four potential scenarios are discussed below.
1. A Weak Ceasefire as a “Strategic Move”
The ceasefire reached after weeks of fighting demonstrated both parties’ desire to control the crisis. However, from the outset, there were divisions regarding its conditions, geographic scope, and the targeted areas excluded from the truce. Some analysts interpret violations of the ceasefire not as signs of a sustainable peace but as a tactical pause in ongoing combat. “At the start of the fighting, the possibility of an agreement was almost non-existent,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Researcher at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “All these principles, stances, and policies have long been points of disagreement between the US and Iran. The war did not immediately reduce these differences; instead, it intensified them,” he told BBC News Persian.
2. A “Shadow War”
Another possible—and perhaps the most likely—scenario is a return to a “controlled conflict.” This means that both sides will avoid full-scale war but will not completely cease military operations. Limited strikes targeting military infrastructure and supply routes could continue. In this context, proxy groups play a significant role. Activities by Iranian-backed groups near Iraq or other border areas may increase. Although the intensity of direct fighting may not rise significantly, the geographic scope of the war may expand.
3. Quiet Diplomatic Continuity
Following the failure of negotiations in Pakistan, it would be premature to conclude that diplomatic efforts have ceased or that talks are completely stalled. Since Pakistan facilitated the previous discussions, it may continue to act as an intermediary, enabling message exchanges between Tehran and Washington in the coming days to persist efforts toward dialogue.
4. Continuation of the Naval Blockade
The US president has ordered the US Navy to block vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz and impose a naval blockade on Iran. This move aims to shut down Iran’s oil trade, severely damaging its economy, and also exerts pressure on China, a major purchaser of Iranian oil.
Ultimately, these scenarios suggest that the line between war and peace may remain blurred. While the failure of the Pakistan talks does not signify a diplomatic dead end nor an inevitable prolonged war, it does indicate a continuation of an uncertain and ambiguous situation.