Five Key Reasons Behind BJP’s Expansion in West Bengal

News Summary: In West Bengal, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has taken the lead in 193 out of 294 seats, significantly increasing the likelihood of ending the Trinamool Congress’s 15-year reign. BJP campaigned on issues such as women’s safety, corruption, and unemployment. Leveraging the ‘Modi brand’ and Hindu vote polarization strategies, BJP promised development and social welfare schemes to establish its influence in the electoral arena.

Kathmandu, April 21: The 15-year-old fortress of Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal appears almost certain to be broken by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). As counting continues in 293 of the state’s 294 assembly seats, BJP is advancing toward a clear majority. The majority mark is 148 seats, but at the time of this report, BJP leads in 193 seats.

In the 2011 assembly elections, BJP posed a significant challenge to the ruling TMC but ultimately TMC secured victory by winning 177 seats. At that time, BJP emerged as the primary opposition party, winning an impressive 77 seats. However, this time BJP is trending toward an outright majority. Mamata Banerjee has claimed that TMC will ultimately remain victorious.

Here are five potential reasons why West Bengal voters are gravitating toward BJP:

1. Anti-incumbency Wave and Growing BJP Base: TMC came to power in 2011 when Mamata Banerjee shattered the left-wing bastion and made history. But after 15 years in power, dissatisfaction with the government had deepened. BJP has capitalized on this sentiment, evolving into a strong opposition party over the last decade. Securing 10% votes in 2016, BJP increased to 38% in 2021 and nearly 39% in the 2024 general elections.

2. Discontent with TMC and Anger Against Corruption: Despite Mamata Banerjee’s continued popularity, issues such as unemployment, corruption, and poor governance have fueled opposition efforts that attracted undecided voters to BJP. TMC has faced serious corruption allegations including teacher recruitment scams and ration scandals. The recent arrest of former minister Partha Chatterjee has damaged the party’s image.

3. Women’s Safety as a Crucial Election Issue: Incidents like the R.G. Kar Hospital case ignited widespread outrage over women’s safety. The publicized sexual harassment of a female doctor at a government hospital in Kolkata sparked nationwide protests. Additionally, women in North 24 Parganas’ Sandeshkhali area accused influential local individuals — allegedly linked to the ruling party — of sexual exploitation, land grabbing, and threats.

4. The Influence of the ‘Modi Brand’ and Hindu Vote Polarization: BJP has campaigned by capitalizing on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity. Facing the powerful machinery of Mamata, the ‘Modi brand’ played a decisive role. Modi promoted the ‘double engine government’ concept, promising development and targeted social welfare benefits, including committing to send Rs 3,000 per month to women’s bank accounts. BJP also pursued efforts to consolidate Hindu voters, portraying TMC as a Muslim-backed party and employing vote polarization strategies.

5. Impact of the Bangladesh Infiltration Issue and Voter List Revision: The controversy over Bangladeshi infiltration in West Bengal has been a long-standing issue. Opposition parties have accused the government of leniency and criticized it vigorously. Ahead of elections, a voter list revision campaign reportedly removed millions of names from the voter rolls, impacting the electoral balance significantly.