Rising Ocean Surface Temperatures Signal 2024 May Be the Hottest Year on Record

April 9, Paris – As global ocean surface temperatures continue to rise steadily, the European Union’s climate monitoring agency has issued a serious warning. Scientists report that current ocean heat levels are nearly matching the record highs set in 2024. This sustained warmth increases the likelihood of a new record being established within days or weeks. Samantha Burgess, Head of Climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, stated that the persistent ocean warming indicates significant changes occurring within the global climate system. She added, “A new historic record in sea surface temperature could be broken by May.”

The Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Union confirmed in April that global ocean temperatures are near the second highest levels ever measured. Notably, extreme marine heatwaves have intensified from the Pacific Ocean to North America, causing significant climate imbalances in many regions. Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization has issued a warning that an El Niño event is likely to develop between May and July. El Niño is a natural phenomenon marked by changes in the Pacific Ocean’s temperature and atmospheric circulation, often triggering droughts, heavy rains, storms, and other extreme weather events worldwide.

Scientific studies indicate that the temperature increase is not solely due to El Niño but also stems from long-term global warming driven by greenhouse gases emitted through human activity. Consequently, both 2023 and 2024 have ranked as the second and hottest years respectively during El Niño periods. Some forecasts suggest the upcoming El Niño may be powerful, comparable to the extreme event that occurred three decades ago. Jake Housefather, a scientist at the Berkeley Earth research institute, warned that if the forthcoming El Niño is strong, the year 2027 could become the hottest year on record. However, Burgess cautioned that it is still too early to determine the event’s intensity. “Springtime forecasts often have high uncertainty,” she noted, “but the global impacts will undoubtedly be felt.”

According to Burgess, the most severe effects of El Niño typically occur the year after its peak, suggesting that global temperatures may continue rising in the years ahead. Copernicus data showed a continuous increase in sea surface temperatures during March and April, signaling the transition toward El Niño conditions. Scientists emphasize that the sharp temperature rise stems not only from natural El Niño variability but also from long-term climate change driven primarily by excessive fossil fuel consumption. In April, the global average temperature was measured at 1.43 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900). Additionally, Arctic sea ice reached near-historic minimum levels, revealing profound impacts on the Earth’s climate system. – With AFP collaboration