Increase in Wheat Production Amid Declining Cultivation Area and Farmer Numbers in Nepal
Although wheat production in Nepal exceeds 2.1 million tons annually, approximately 24,000 tons of wheat were imported during the first nine months of the current fiscal year. Despite a continuous decline in wheat cultivation area over the past 12 years, productivity has improved, with an estimated production of 2.1 million tons on 685,000 hectares this fiscal year. However, challenges such as irrigation shortages, disease outbreaks, and insufficient availability of fertilizers and seeds persist, leading farmers to reduce wheat cultivation due to perceived losses, according to agricultural experts.
April 14, Kathmandu — In Nepal, wheat ranks as the third major cereal crop after rice and maize in total food grain production. It plays a vital role not only in ensuring national food security but also as a backbone of the rural economy. Being a major winter crop, wheat is particularly significant as it can be grown successfully during periods of low rainfall by utilizing irrigation and appropriate technology.
Traditionally, wheat has been used in Nepali society to prepare roti, dhido, and puwa. With changing lifestyles and market expansion, wheat has transcended the kitchen to become a key ingredient in larger industries. Wheat is now the primary raw material for biscuits, instant noodles, bread, and increasingly popular products such as pasta and macaroni. Consequently, demand for wheat is rising rapidly, not only for household consumption but also for commercial processing.
Despite producing around 2.1 million tons of wheat annually, Nepal has yet to achieve full self-sufficiency. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development indicate a rise in wheat production along with continued imports. During the first nine months of fiscal year 2082/83 (2025/26), Nepal imported about 24,000 tons of wheat. Customs records show 23,964 tons of wheat and seed entered the country by the end of Chaitra (mid-April), amounting to foreign expenditures of NPR 103.7 crore.
The imports primarily fulfill the demand of flour mills and pasta industries that use wheat as raw material. Additionally, 500 kg of wheat seed was also imported during this period. The rapid growth of instant noodle, pasta, macaroni, and biscuit industries drives this demand. Since durum wheat with high protein content is not produced domestically, large quantities are imported to meet industrial needs.
The Ministry anticipates a 2.5% increase in wheat production for the current fiscal year. Production last year (2081/82) reached 2,056,000 tons on 683,977 hectares. For this year, production is projected at 2,107,206 tons on 685,687 hectares. Productivity per hectare improved from 3.01 tons last year to an expected 3.07 tons this year.
Analysis of 12 years of wheat production data reveals a consistent decline in the area under wheat cultivation out of Nepal’s 3.09 million hectares of arable land. The cultivation area shrank from 754,474 hectares in fiscal year 2070/71 (2013/14) to 681,851 hectares in 2080/81 (2023/24). However, a slight recovery occurred in 2081/82 to 683,977 hectares, with projections showing further increase to 685,687 hectares this fiscal year.
Wheat production has fluctuated over the years. It reached a peak of 2,185,289 tons in 2076/77 (2019/20) but fell to a low of 1,736,849 tons in 2072/73 (2015/16). Production dropped to 2,035,551 tons in 2080/81, then rose again to 2,055,811 tons in 2081/82.
Productivity improvements have been substantial. After decades of effort, yields increased from 1.47 tons per hectare in 2070/71 to 2.49 tons in 2080/81 and 3.01 tons in 2081/82. The highest observed productivity was 3.09 tons per hectare in 2076/77. This year, productivity is expected to reach 3.07 tons per hectare.
Newly developed nutritious wheat varieties in Nepal have raised hopes for better production. The National Wheat Research Program has introduced zinc- and iron-rich varieties, which are gaining popularity among farmers, and are expected to contribute further to food and nutrition security.
Nevertheless, challenges such as shrinking cultivation areas, disease outbreaks, and shortages of fertilizers and seeds remain significant. Though research centers have developed improved varieties, inefficient distribution systems prevent timely seed delivery to farmers. Irrigation remains inadequate as most farmers irrigate only once, although wheat requires at least two to three irrigations. The shortage of potassium fertilizer and improper urea use negatively affect soil health. To enhance productivity, policy interventions are needed to improve seed distribution, irrigation investment, and fertilizer availability.
Agricultural expert Uddhav Adhikari states that farmers increasingly perceive wheat cultivation as “loss-making farming.” They are shifting toward other crops like mustard, with the wheat cultivation area reduced to less than half compared to rice. Difficulties in cultivation, low returns, and lack of irrigation have discouraged farmers from growing wheat.
He remarked, “Demand for wheat-based products like pizza, burgers, and bread is increasing, but wheat production is declining,” which forces Nepal to import large quantities of wheat.
Customs department data over the past five years show fluctuating wheat imports. Imports steadily declined from 97,069 tons in 2077/78 (2020/21) and 191,585 tons in 2078/79 (2021/22) to only 6,664 tons in 2079/80 (2022/23), and then further to 6,543 and 2 tons in 2080/81 and 2081/82 respectively. However, imports surged again to 24,000 tons in the first nine months of the current fiscal year 2082/83. This pattern highlights volatility and significant annual fluctuations in wheat imports.