Unprecedented Welcome for Ravi Lamichhane in India: What Does It Mean for Balendra Shah ‘Balen’s Government?
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Ravi Lamichhane, chairperson of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (Raswapa), reiterates that the government led by senior leader Balendra Shah ‘Balen’ has been formed for five years. However, following Lamichhane’s visit to India, questions have begun to arise about the future of the government.
Former Nepalese ambassador and political scientist Professor Lokraj Baral views the welcome given to Ravi Lamichhane in India as “unprecedented.”
According to Professor Baral, the Rastriya Swatantra Party was accorded special attention in Delhi because of other parties’ weak position after the last election and because it represents a new generation receiving a fresh mandate. He noted, “While other leaders were also welcomed, what happened this time was genuinely unprecedented; such a reception was seen for the first time.”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and senior officials conducted significant talks with Lamichhane.
Modi expressed, “I am extremely pleased to meet Lamichhane.”
“I welcome and fully agree with his desire to work together for a shared and prosperous future,” Prime Minister Modi wrote in Nepali on social media platform X, alongside photos of their meeting. “Under our Neighborhood First Policy, Nepal is a special partner, and we are eager to elevate the multifaceted relationship between our countries through cooperation with the new government.”
Missed Opportunity for Balen?
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Lamichhane’s visit is being interpreted in connection with Prime Minister Balendra Shah’s ‘diplomatic strictness’.
This has led to speculation and doubts about the future of Balen’s government domestically, as his own party’s leader was warmly welcomed in Delhi.
Other former ambassadors to India from Nepal, Deepakumar Upadhyay and Neelambar Acharya, have stated that there is no reason for the government to harbor doubts over Lamichhane’s visit.
Acharya mentioned that the government itself facilitated Lamichhane’s visit through the embassy.
According to Upadhyay, if there were concerns, the visit could have been avoided or a trusted minister from the Prime Minister’s office could have been sent instead.
“India could interpret Nepal ignoring its invitation or the Prime Minister not showing up after being called, and such egotism is something India can exploit completely,” Upadhyay analyzed.
Professor Baral believes that by adhering too strictly to protocol, Prime Minister Balen has lost some opportunities. He indicated that Balen’s ‘diplomatic rigidity’ was evident in the fact he avoided communicating with various foreign guests and the Indian Foreign Secretary.
“If you never speak to anyone, a country like Nepal does not need to be overly cautious about protocol,” Baral said. “Hence, India seems to be trying to coordinate with Nepal’s priorities through Lamichhane’s visit.”
According to Baral, Lamichhane’s India trip is helping resolve the diplomatic impasse caused by Balen.
Ravi Lamichhane: Government Helmsman or Source of Crisis?
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Some have suggested that Lamichhane is being prepared as an alternative to Balen, and thus his India visit holds that significance.
“Regardless of which party, a Madhesi has become Nepal’s Prime Minister for the first time, but there is a conspiracy to create conditions for an alternative and to depict him as unfortunate like other Madhesi leaders,” the secretariat of Janamat Party chairman CK Raut wrote on Facebook. “Unfortunately, the targeted individual currently is the Madhesi Prime Minister.”
There are those who consider these remarks extreme. However, former ambassador Acharya does not believe in such conspiracies.
“Wrongdoers act in the dark; if they intended a conspiracy, they would not have chosen to do it through a visit,” he says. “I see this as a purpose of expanding relations.”
Professor Baral believes Lamichhane’s visit provides an opportunity for dialogue for Balen’s government.
He is not surprised by the signals that India is ready to accept Ravi Lamichhane as an alternative to Balen.
“Interpretations may vary, but Lamichhane has formed his party and won twice in elections,” he says. “That is why India seems enthusiastic about engaging with the new power.”
Considering Lamichhane’s return coincides with Foreign Minister Shishir Khanal’s visit to India, Baral also anticipates the possibility of a visit by the Indian Foreign Secretary, which was previously reported as delayed.
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Former Nepalese ambassador to India Shankar Sharma believes that if bilateral political and diplomatic dialogue increases, discussions with India on topics that Raswapa’s government prioritizes will accelerate.
“Although various bilateral mechanisms at different levels are important, visits at the secretary, minister, and prime minister levels are even more significant,” Sharma says. “Therefore, Nepal must do its homework to identify and address the issues it wants to raise.”
Whether Lamichhane will be a helmsman for the government or a source of crisis depends on internal trust within Raswapa. They believe Lamichhane possesses the art of dialogue to tilt complex issues in favor of public opinion.
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