China Seeks to Win Over Kim Jong Un Amid Strengthening North Korea-Russia Ties

When Chinese President Xi Jinping visited North Korea in the east, its leader Kim Jong Un was facing significant challenges. Kim was under serious pressure due to American sanctions.

After the failure of nuclear talks with the United States, North Korea was forced to endure these pressures.

Nearly seven years have passed since then. President Xi is scheduled to visit North Korea again on Monday. This time, both he and the previously vulnerable Kim are expected to emerge stronger.

Currently, Kim has grown more powerful due to a new alliance with Russia. The relationship with Russia has provided significant economic support to North Korea. This partnership has helped lift the North Korean economy out of isolation.

During this visit, Xi and Kim will hold a two-day summit. Xi aims to use this dialogue as a platform to demonstrate strong unity against Western countries. He wants to send a message that his allies remain united.

However, analysts hold differing views. North Korea is currently leaning more toward Russia. China is eager to maintain influence over its neighboring country. This is the primary reason behind Xi’s planned visit to North Korea.

On the other hand, North Korean leader Kim does not wish to be a junior partner in Chinese diplomacy. He does not want to remain just an aide to China; rather, he seeks increased economic support from Beijing. To leverage this, Kim may use his close relationship with Russia in external diplomacy.

North Korea’s two major neighbors are Russia and China. Kim appears able to balance relations with both. Under these circumstances, there is a possibility he will further expand his nuclear weapons program, which could heighten instability in the region.

U.S. allied countries in the region are concerned. They have long been alarmed by the growing Chinese military influence. Currently, the U.S. is preoccupied with a war involving Iran, which is straining American resources. This raises questions about Washington’s ability to uphold its defense agreements.

Xi Aims to Showcase Unity with Kim

Xi is eager to demonstrate unity with Kim, but will need to diplomatically engage Kim to achieve this.

Xi may use his rare access to Kim to send a global message that North Korea remains dependent on China and cannot abandon the Eastern superpower Beijing.

This effort aligns with Xi’s broader strategy to present China as a major global power. China has sought to depict Washington as a source of global chaos.

China views America’s war with Iran and tariffs imposed on allies and adversaries alike as fostering disorder.

Beijing, meanwhile, strives to project itself as a force for stability worldwide. Recent summits involving former President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have supported this narrative.

“Xi tries to show better relations with authoritarian groups than Trump does with his Democratic partners,” said Kurt Campbell, former U.S. deputy secretary of state for Asia and current Asia Group chairman.

In 2024, North Korea strengthened its Cold War-era mutual defense pact with Russia, indicating reduced reliance on China.

Russia has supplied oil, food, and weapons technology. In exchange, North Korea has provided soldiers and ammunition to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

This development has caused concern for China, which wishes to maintain its influence over North Korea and ensure regional stability.

“The Chinese are worried about the growing closeness between Russia and North Korea,” says John Delury, a historian specializing in Northeast Asia. “This visit hopes to ease that relationship somewhat and also gives Xi a chance to reassert his diplomatic standing.”

Kim on a Course of Continued Success

A few years ago, Kim’s position was weaker. In 2019, he abruptly left U.S. talks, dashing hopes for easing sanctions.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Kim completely sealed off the country’s borders, isolating North Korea and halting its main trade with China.

Once the pandemic subsided, Kim’s fortunes improved. He capitalized on Russia’s difficulties during the Ukraine war and strengthened ties with Moscow.

Having previously leaned towards China, he shifted his foreign policy toward Russia, providing military aid and weapons. In return, Russia supplied oil, food, weapons technology, and other support.

Now, Xi’s meeting with Kim will emphasize that China remains North Korea’s primary partner. In March, rail services and flights between Beijing and Pyongyang resumed, marking a new chapter.

Trump, America, and Nuclear Weapons

Discussions between Xi and Kim are expected to focus on America, former President Trump, and nuclear weapons. There is global interest in whether Xi will pressure Kim to engage in dialogue with the U.S.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has repeatedly expressed a desire to hold another summit with Kim.

It is believed that Trump may send messages to Kim through Xi. However, Kim has refused to enter into talks with Washington regarding his nuclear program.

For security reasons, Kim prioritizes reducing dependence on Moscow and Beijing by advancing his nuclear program, which he views as a strong shield against U.S. aggression.

After the Trump administration attacked Iran to prevent nuclear development, Kim’s stance only hardened.

Kim attempts to use China and Russia as protective shields for his nuclear program. Notably, both countries previously voted in favor of U.N. Security Council sanctions against North Korea.

After signing the defense pact with Russia, Moscow’s tacit approval has become evident.

It is estimated North Korea possesses about 50 nuclear weapons, though it lacks intercontinental ballistic missile technology.

China officially refuses to recognize North Korea as a nuclear-armed state. North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons raises the risk of U.S. allies like South Korea pursuing their own arsenals.

Analysts note subtle shifts in China’s stance. During a meeting between Xi and Kim in Beijing last September, neither government’s statement mentioned nuclear disarmament on the Korean Peninsula.

Last month, the White House announced that both Trump and Xi shared the ‘common goal of a nuclear-free North Korea’, but China’s response was muted, referring only to an exchange of views on the peninsula’s issue.

– Adapted from New York Times reporting