Nepal Election 2082: The Rising Momentum in Madhesh and Two Contrasting Analyses
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Two distinct perspectives have emerged regarding Madhesh and its related issues following the election.
The first group of analysts claims that Madhesh-based parties have been completely defeated in this election and that their agendas appear to have disappeared.
The other group interprets that Madhesh has secured an important place in national dialogue with this election, and both new and established powers have accepted Madhesh’s fundamental agendas.
Rastriya Swatantra Party’s Popularity
In the election results, out of 32 seats in the Madhesh Province, the Rastriya Swatantra Party won 30 seats. Among the remaining two, Firdaus Alam of Nepali Congress secured one from Rautahat 2, and Matrika Yadav of the Communist Party of Nepal won from Dhanusha 1.
Interestingly, out of the 30 seats won by the Rastriya Swatantra Party, 25 candidates were of Madheshi origin.
Madhesh-based political parties, however, were completely unsuccessful in this election.
Previously, Madhesh-based parties contested elections as coalitions with larger parties such as Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, or Maoists and paid significant attention to Madhesh.
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This time, the electoral environment was not favorable for Madhesh-based parties. These parties had been losing public trust while participating in governments at all three levels.
Similar to the major parties, dissatisfaction among the public with Madhesh-based parties was evident.
The populace appeared tired of the traditional democratic leaders and slogans.
There was hope for a fresh start with CK Raut in the recent election, but some expressed disappointment with him.
Two Divergent Analyses
According to the first type of analysts, ethnic and geographic identities such as those related to the Himalayas, hills, or Terai-Madhesh were not priorities in this election. Compared to old political issues and identities, the idea of “new”—which has evolved after the Gen-Z movement—is very strong, and discussions about new party candidates are generally not prominent.
Balendra Shah, also known as Balen, has emerged representing the new generation, and voters have accepted the bell symbol of the Rastriya Swatantra Party.
“This is an election without a specific agenda,” said Hridayesh Tripathi, a senior leader from the Terai region. However, he noted that all the agendas still remain alive.
Since the agendas remain alive, politics in support of them will continue, he believes.
Rajendra Mahato, chairman of the National Liberation Party, stated that electoral victory alone does not guarantee the future of groups based on popular struggles and political backgrounds.
He said, “Today’s national success, i.e., having a Madheshi face as Prime Minister, is the result of dreams and struggles demonstrated by Madheshi politics in the past. How can that be denied?”
However, some Madhesh-based party leaders have warned of possible new movements by highlighting the risks to the achievements of the Madhesh movement.
Recently, while dominant groups have been pressuring to withhold constitutional rights from the province, the capacity of Balendra Shah—known in Kathmandu as ‘Darling’—to lead the fight will determine Madhesh’s political future.
The Success of ‘Madhesi’ Politics?
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With the Rastriya Swatantra Party putting forward Balendra Shah as the face of the prime ministerial candidate, Madhesh has been given an important place in electoral politics.
The entire Madhesh has become “Balen-maya” (Balen-centric), winning 30 seats. Among these 30 seats, 25 winners are of Madheshi identity.
This is also viewed as a political accomplishment for Madheshi representation.
Balendra Shah, during his campaign rally in Janakpur, showed a commitment to strengthen the province. This is essentially a ‘political victory’ for regional powers.
Balendra’s Madheshi identity and dedication to federalism appear to have garnered strong support from Madhesh.
Regional powers can stand as pressure groups in national politics, but the party commanding the majority in the House of Representatives can implement constitutional amendments smoothly—an advantage that Rastriya Swatantra Party also benefits from.
The Road Ahead?
Many believe Madhesh-based parties could have avoided such defeat by forming a unified front and contesting under a single election symbol, potentially emerging as the “third force” in Terai-Madhesh. However, a strong alliance among these parties failed to materialize.
When Balendra Shah was proposed as prime minister and took a stand on Madhesh’s basic infrastructure, some leaders from Madhesh-based parties began to question his Madheshi identity.
Whereas previously Rastriya Swatantra Party was stringent about Madheshi identity and provincial structure issues, this time it appeared to have reformed and contested with an electoral manifesto.
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Both traditional Nepali Congress and the newer Rastriya Swatantra Party have recognized Madhesh Province’s strategic importance and nominated their prime ministerial candidates from this region. Madhesh is now becoming a significant challenge for them.
It is their responsibility to offer Madhesh-related forces an opportunity for self-reflection and integrate Madhesh voters into the mainstream.
There is also speculation that if the Rastriya Swatantra Party advances with the notion of Madhesh as a territory solely for their votes, it could spark new nationwide tensions.
Effective provincial structures and creating an inclusive state are two crucial issues that will facilitate Madhesh coexisting harmoniously with other regions and communities. The next moves of the Rastriya Swatantra Party could determine Madhesh’s political future.
All opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
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