Conflict Between Iran, the US, and Israel: Are We Heading Towards World War III or Just Growing Fears?
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The conflict initiated by the US and Israel in Iran has persisted for over a month, fueling concerns that this Middle Eastern dispute could escalate further.
This conflict is impacting not only Iran but also dozens of countries including the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Azerbaijan, the West Bank, Cyprus, Syria, Qatar, and Lebanon.
Many are alarmed by the possibility of a Third World War, fearing that this confrontation might extend beyond regional boundaries.
When Can a War Become a World War?
“People tend to think that wars are fully planned and everyone knows exactly what they are doing,” said Margaret MacMillan, Emeritus Professor of International History at Oxford University. Speaking on a global podcast, she explained:
“However, studies of the past, especially World War I, reveal that most wars have started due to accidents and miscalculations by opponents,” MacMillan elaborated. “Sometimes, it can be understood as a simple schoolyard fight.”
MacMillan recalls that World War I began in 1914 after the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary.
Within weeks, alliances plunged Europe into war: Austria-Hungary acted against Serbia; Germany supported Austria; Russia backed Serbia; France supported Russia; and Britain entered the war.
Every subsequent action led to global destruction, she notes.
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Professor Jo Maiolo of King’s College London defines world wars as full-scale conflicts involving all major powers.
“In World War I, European imperial powers were involved. World War II included the US, Japan, and China,” he said.
Many now consider Middle Eastern tensions as regional. Could they, however, expand extensively?
In an interview in February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his belief that Russian President Vladimir Putin has already started a third world war. He said only aggressive military and economic pressures could force Putin to withdraw.
“I believe Putin has already started it. The question is how much territory they can seize and how to stop them… Russia is trying to impose a way of life on the world that people have not chosen,” Zelensky stated.
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So, how real is the threat of a third world war at present?
“I believe the risk could increase due to Iran or allies like the Houthis in Yemen,” MacMillan said.
Iran may take measures such as targeting shipping routes or closing the Strait of Hormuz, which would disrupt global energy supplies and draw in major powers.
US involvement has escalated risks; even nations not directly engaged are feeling economic and strategic effects.
Another danger is that a regional conflict could profoundly impact other areas.
While Western countries are entangled, China could attack Taiwan, or Russia might intensify operations in Ukraine.
“There is always the possibility of conflict spreading beyond this region because conflicts create opportunities elsewhere, and involved parties are often too occupied to prevent it,” MacMillan added.
According to Professor Maiolo, the conflict will remain limited to the Middle East and Gulf Cooperation Council regions. However, China and Russia will not be directly involved in this war.
“It’s unlikely China will launch an attack on Taiwan in the near future. That is entirely improbable.
Regarding a world or third world war, I don’t think China or Russia will become directly involved, especially not in Europe,” he said.
He analyzed China’s diplomatic approach as distinct from US President Donald Trump’s strategy: “When your competitor is making major strategic mistakes, you should let them continue.”
Despite fluctuations in oil prices, Maiolo considers China’s choice to avoid diplomatic engagement in its own interests.
He added, “Strategically, the US being occupied in the Middle East is far more interesting for China than the region’s oil resources.”
The Role of Leaders
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History shows wars often arise from pride, honor, and fear of opponents, according to MacMillan.
She adds that history also demonstrates that leaders can alter the course of events.
“France’s Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau once said that maintaining peace was harder than going to war during World War I.”
MacMillan explains that when people endure great sacrifices and losses, leaders often decide that “the war must continue to be won.”
Pride also plays a role in leaders’ policies and decisions. Referring to Putin, she says, “The invasion of Ukraine was a clear mistake.”
Russia launched a full-scale invasion four years ago but has not achieved its military objectives in Ukraine since then.
The UK Ministry of Defence estimates Russian casualties at 1.25 million, exceeding the number of American deaths in World War II.
MacMillan warns that those refusing to accept failure or prolong the conflict deepen the crisis further.
Historically, leaders like Adolf Hitler fought on despite inevitable defeat due to ideology and pride.
Such decisions can escalate a limited conflict into a widespread war.
Ways to Reduce Tensions
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MacMillan emphasizes the critical importance of diplomatic efforts to halt the war: “You need to understand the other side… and maintain contact with them.”
She recalls that towards the end of the Cold War, NATO’s involvement helped improve communication between opposing parties.
“There are many cases where people exercised patience despite uncertainty, recognizing the need to ease tensions.”
Maiolo concurs, stating: “Tel Aviv, Washington, and Tehran must realize the outcomes achievable within their means.”
He points out that continued war cannot yield satisfactory results for all parties involved.
“Arrangements relieving sanctions, security measures, and a clear understanding of Iran’s role in global politics are necessary,” he said.
Maiolo concludes that only mediation can bring warring parties to a ceasefire and help manage long-term peace.