What Is the ‘Thucydides Trap’ That Xi Jinping Warned Trump About?

Chinese President Xi Jinping has advised caution to avoid falling into the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ in the relationship between the United States and China. Citing the ancient war between Athens and Sparta, Xi highlighted the potential for conflict between two rising powers. During a meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders in Beijing on Thursday, Xi warned about the dangers of the ‘Thucydides Trap’ regarding relations with America. He stated that if then-President Trump tried to curb China’s growing influence over Taiwan, Beijing and Washington could reach an “extremely risky turning point.”

The term ‘Thucydides Trap’ originates from the ancient Athenian general Thucydides, who chronicled the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta from 431 to 404 BC. His account is considered one of the earliest written military histories. Thucydides argued that the primary cause of the conflict was the threat posed by a rising power (Athens) to an established power (Sparta). On Thursday, Daniel Suton, a classics scholar at Cambridge University, explained, “When an established great power and a rising power confront each other, conflict is not inevitable but becomes probable.”

Xi and his senior diplomats have repeatedly referenced this concept over decades. However, they have presented it not as an inevitable fate but as a cautionary tale. In 2015, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger remarked, “There is no real-world equivalent of the ‘Thucydides Trap.’” Yet, Xi appeared deeply influenced by the idea on Thursday, questioning President Trump, “Can China and the United States avoid the Thucydides Trap and establish a new type of major power relationship?”

According to Ryan Swan, a China-U.S. relations expert at the German Center for Conflict Studies, Xi’s frequent invocation of the concept is part of Beijing’s broader diplomatic strategy. Since assuming office in 2012, Xi has emphasized treating the U.S. as an “equal power” and urged Washington not to interfere in China’s neighboring regions. Chinese officials believe this approach will enhance stable coexistence between the two nations. Swan noted, “China views the Thucydides Trap less as a predictive framework from Western theory and more as a preventable threat.”