Risk of Nuclear Weapons Escalates if US-China War Erupts, Warns Defense Institute

A prominent international defense research institute has issued a warning that a war between the United States and China over the Taiwan dispute could lead to nuclear devastation. In a report released Thursday by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), it was highlighted that the military forces of both nations might target each other’s central command and communication centers, potentially triggering a nuclear conflict. This report was disclosed ahead of Asia’s largest annual Defense conference, the “Shangri-La Dialogue,” set to begin this week in Singapore.

According to the report, the world is currently caught in a new nuclear arms race, with the Asia-Pacific region at its core. U.S. officials have noted that China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal compared to other nuclear powers. The U.S. Department of Defense’s Pentagon projects that by 2030, China could possess up to 1,000 nuclear warheads. Currently, the United States holds approximately 3,700 active nuclear weapons, Russia about 4,400, while China’s inventory stands at 620 warheads.

Senior Fellow Daniel Salisbury of IISS noted that, unlike the prolonged arms control dialogues between the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, there have been no substantial talks between the U.S. and China on this issue. Earlier this month, a summit took place in Beijing between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump; however, the report states that nuclear security was not discussed during their meeting.

The report has drawn dissatisfaction from China. Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin described the IISS report as detached from the real situation. He emphasized that Taiwan is an internal matter for China and that any external interference is unacceptable. Additionally, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning warned the U.S. to exercise extreme caution regarding Taiwan. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will attend the Defense conference in Singapore from May 29 to 31. It remains unconfirmed whether China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun will participate.