Earthquake Risk in Nepal: High Danger Due to ‘Main Himalayan Thrust’ Fault Zone, What is the Preparedness Status?
Image source, seismonepal
After two powerful earthquakes measuring above magnitude 7 struck Venezuela within minutes, a 4.1 magnitude earthquake was recorded in Jumla, western Nepal, on Thursday.
Nepal, still recalling the devastating Gorkha earthquake that claimed nearly 9,000 lives eleven years ago, was alarmed by the Venezuelan earthquakes. This has sparked concerns about Nepal’s earthquake preparedness.
According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the first earthquake near Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, was followed by a stronger second quake just 39 seconds later. The first measured 7.2 and the second 7.5 in magnitude, causing severe damage as estimated by local authorities.
The 4.1 magnitude earthquake recorded in Tami, Jumla, western Nepal, is unrelated to the earthquakes over 14,000 kilometers away in Venezuela.
Senior seismologist Lokvijay Adhikari from the Earthquake Monitoring Center says that Nepal experiences an average of 10 earthquakes daily. The center records quakes of magnitude two and above, though most are not perceivable by people.
What is the Earthquake Risk in Nepal?
Nepal is located in the Himalayas, formed by the collision of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates about 40 million years ago. This geological activity places Nepal at high risk for earthquakes, experts say.
These tectonic plates continue to shift today, keeping the region vulnerable to seismic hazards, according to various studies.
“The entire geographic stretch from eastern to western Nepal is at risk for major earthquakes, primarily due to the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) fault zone,” senior seismologist Adhikari explained.
“However, there remain many smaller faults that require further research.”
Research focused on Nepal’s western region indicates increased earthquake risks there.
Since 1990, earthquakes in and around Kathmandu Valley and eastern Nepal have released accumulated seismic energy, but significant energy build-up remains in western Nepal, likely to cause future quakes.
Earthquakes of magnitude 6.4 in Jajarkot in 2023 and others in Doty the same year inflicted significant human and infrastructural loss.
“The research shows that seismic energy has been accumulating in western Nepal for a long time. Recent moderate and significant earthquakes there demonstrate that we remain vulnerable,” Adhikari said.
What is Nepal’s Earthquake Preparedness?
Image source, NDRRMA
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) is responsible for planning and coordinating disaster preparedness, including earthquakes.
The Prime Minister and Home Minister serve as chairs for the authority’s key units.
Former NDRRMA executive director Dinesh Bhatt stated that efforts are ongoing in policy-making, infrastructure, and public awareness to reduce earthquake risks.
“Although work is underway, it has not reached the level it should have,” he added.
“While building codes are strictly enforced in urban areas, extending this enforcement to rural communities remains a challenge.”
Officials claim that nearly 800,000 houses built after the 2015 earthquake comply with earthquake-resistant standards.
Senior seismologist Adhikari notes that unlike floods or landslides, which are seasonal and more frequent, earthquakes require additional specialized preparedness.
“Earthquakes cannot be predicted currently, but risks can be identified. Therefore, preparedness is the most critical factor,” he says.
“The irony is that earthquake preparedness is markedly insufficient.”
Adhikari adds that identifying earthquake-prone areas, detecting vulnerable structures, and implementing preventive measures remain inadequate.
Complaints of poor coordination and collaboration among government agencies have been voiced by relevant officials.
Ram Bahadur KC, head of disaster response at the authority, reports ongoing preparedness for disaster response from security agencies to local governments. Since the 2015 quake, building codes and several policy reforms have been introduced, along with disaster management plans.
“We are focusing on constructing earthquake-resistant buildings and minimizing casualties from structural collapse. Public awareness programs have also been conducted,” KC said.
Disaster Volunteers Being Trained
Image source, NDRMA
The Disaster Management Authority, in collaboration with the Armed Police Force, has provided preparedness and rescue training to approximately 1,500 individuals.
“Due to Nepal’s mountainous terrain, police and security forces cannot always respond quickly; therefore, community volunteers capable of self-help are being organized,” former executive director Bhatt explained.
Organizations like the Red Cross report having about 12,000 volunteers. Ram Bahadur KC stated that these volunteers also receive basic training to respond to various disasters beyond earthquakes.
“In the last fiscal year, we trained over 1,500 volunteers. Alongside institutions like the Red Cross, there are approximately 12,000 volunteers,” KC said.
“We have prepared community volunteers with essential disaster knowledge who can act promptly and conduct rescues during earthquakes.”