Sher Bahadur Deuba Returns to Nepal: What Lies Ahead and What Does the Congress Establishment Want?
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Former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba ended a five-and-a-half-month stay abroad and returned to Nepal. Upon arrival at Tribhuvan Airport, he refrained from making any statements to the gathered well-wishers. However, he issued a two-page message on social media.
“Nepali Congress must unite as one and also seek consensus and cooperation with all active political parties in the country. Today, it is essential that everyone come together to strengthen national unity and democracy,” he stated.
“The disagreements and disappointments within the Nepali Congress must be resolved immediately. When the nation’s main party is embroiled in disputes, national unity is at risk. Therefore, I appeal to all leaders, workers, well-wishers, supporters, and voters of the Nepali Congress, which is a party that believes in collective action, to honor the sacrifices, dedication, and struggles of all members and move forward accordingly. The Nepali Congress must prioritize the people’s supreme interests over anyone’s ego.”
Known for his reserved demeanor, Deuba did not make any public remarks at the airport. Political observers suggest that his upcoming comments within the next few days will be pivotal in determining whether the Nepali Congress achieves unity or further division.
Former acting chairperson Purna Bahadur Khadka, who went to welcome him, said that Deuba will play a “decisive role” in uniting the entire party.
Expectations of Party Leadership
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Leaders and workers of the large party who had opposed Deuba and rejected the special general convention reportedly have been influenced positively by his return.
After Gagan Thapa assumed party leadership, the dissatisfied faction announced plans to organize a ‘National Gathering’. It is reported that Deuba will address this event, making many view his homecoming as significant. Leaders in the establishment faction hope that Deuba will foster party unity.
“Having been prime minister five times and party chairperson, he is an experienced personality. He can maturely bring the party together,” said General Secretary Pradeep Paudel.
“We trust he will present himself as someone who will unify the party.”
Party Vice-Chairperson Pushpa Bhusal also expressed hope that Deuba will play a caring, ‘parental’ role.
“Not only was he Prime Minister and party chairperson, but also a veteran who has struggled long within the Nepali Congress organization. We respect him as a guardian. Therefore, his role will be crucial in strengthening and uniting the party rather than causing division,” Bhusal stated.
According to General Secretary Paudel, the party is currently being manipulated “both internally and externally.” “Efforts are underway to weaken the party from within. I believe Deuba will recognize this and contribute patiently to create an environment of unity,” he added.
Political analyst Puranjan Acharya believes Deuba’s return could bolster party unity.
“The Supreme Court recently ordered a review of the Congress dispute, which may have psychologically impacted the establishment faction. In this difficult situation, his return appears to mark a decisive turning point for party unity,” Acharya said.
The faction that became candidates through the special general convention received recognition from the Election Commission and Supreme Court prior to elections.
However, the Supreme Court recently ordered a review of its previous ruling on the Nepali Congress dispute.
All Eyes on the ‘National Gathering’
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The opposition is scheduled to hold a national gathering in Kathmandu this Friday, where Deuba is expected to address the event. Many within the Congress eagerly anticipate his remarks.
“If at the gathering Deuba says that he is newly returned, still understanding the situation, will not engage in creating division, and will only take the initiative to unify the Nepali Congress, that will send a clear distinct message,” said General Secretary Paudel.
Vice-Chairperson Bhusal urged party workers, who carry the desire to strengthen the party, to avoid expressions that weaken or divide the party. “There should be no expression that weakens the party or causes factionalism,” she said.
Analyst Acharya considers the statements delivered by Deuba and other leaders at this gathering to be significant.
“In my understanding, his personal life, history, and security depend heavily on party unity. In the past, Girija Prasad Koirala displayed a similar situation. After multiple failures, he returned through peace talks with the Maoists and restored his stature,” said Acharya.
“I do not see him aspiring to become chairperson again, so his major role will be to bring different factions together and unify the party.”
Two Major Challenges Deuba Must Face
Image Source, NUR PHOTO VIA GETTY IMAGES
On 24th Bhadra (early September), during the Janajati Guthi (Jan G) movement, Deuba and his wife Arju Rana Deuba were assaulted, and their house was set on fire. He underwent treatment for months afterward.
During the party’s internal disputes in mid-December, a special general convention was held, and the Congress faction led by Gagan Thapa received recognition from the Election Commission. Deuba and his wife went to Singapore on 13th Falgun (late February) for further treatment. Currently, Congress is the second-largest party in the House of Representatives.
Experts say that Deuba now faces two types of challenges.
The first challenge is legal. Some time ago, the government obtained permission from Kathmandu District Court for the arrest of the Deuba couple in a property cleansing case.
However, the Supreme Court annulled that order. So far, government agencies have not officially commented on the police investigation.
After returning home, Deuba may have to confront these issues.
“My understanding is that he returned ready to face legal challenges; otherwise, he would not have come back,” said Acharya.
The second challenge is politically tougher. After being displaced by the Jan G movement, KP Oli-led government is consolidating its political position through the UML general convention and strengthening its leadership and political direction.
Deuba was inactive for a long time, undergoing treatment abroad. But the demand for leadership change within Congress led to a special general convention.
The party made serious missteps during the elections, and now official talks of party division are emerging.
A national gathering is imminent, and there is widespread curiosity about whether Deuba will work to unify the party or accelerate its division.
“According to some sources and those close to him, he believes the party should not split but must be reconciled,” Acharya said.
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