Government Analysis: Why the Risk of Major Flooding Is Decreasing
Officials from the Department of Water and Meteorology have reported that a lake formed near the Nepal-China border has burst due to a landslide, allowing its water to flow outwards. This has significantly reduced the risk of a devastating flood from another adjacent lake. According to Vinod Parajuli, senior meteorologist at the Flood Forecasting Division, the burst of the lake known as ‘Lake One’ near the border caused a sediment-laden flood to impact the Bhote Koshi and Trishuli rivers early in the morning. Nepali authorities had issued immediate warnings for vigilance. However, current assessments indicate that the likelihood of a large flood has diminished, with only a moderate risk remaining from the nearby secondary lake.
As of 1 PM on Sunday, the recent flooding had claimed 752 lives, and over 2,500 individuals were reported missing. Senior meteorologist Parajuli explained, “The news of the lower of the two lakes bursting came early in the morning. Initially, the cause was unclear, but once it was confirmed that the flood was moving into Nepal, we promptly issued warnings.” He added, “Though the flood was significant, it was not as severe as previous incidents. The water has flowed out of Nepal, reducing the risk since the lake that was at risk of bursting has already broken.”
The secondary lake, situated on the Nepalese side of the mountains and enclosed by rocks, is currently under preliminary observation and shows a low risk of bursting. The officials noted that due to its shallow water level, the chances of it breaking are minimal. The Chinese side is also monitoring this lake and anticipates no large floods similar to those experienced last week or on Sunday.
Information released at 7 AM on Sunday by the Department of Water and Meteorology indicated that flooding from the Bhote Koshi area in Rasuwa caused the water level to rise by 3 meters in the Trishuli River and in Galchi, Dhading. Heavy rainfall was reported across various watersheds in Gandaki Province, prompting warnings for heightened vigilance as water levels could rise in the Narayani River and its tributaries. Senior meteorologist Parajuli explained that the second lake formed due to blockage by stones and soil from a landslide in Nepal’s remote regions, making monitoring challenging. “There is no accessible route from Nepal, and reaching it requires clearance to pass through Chinese security via helicopter. Although the Chinese side is monitoring and sending information, our primary focus remains on rescue operations.”