Low-Pressure System Developing in the Bay of Bengal Expected to Impact Nepal Through Sunday; Heightened Alert Needed

Meteorologists have issued warnings of heavy rainfall across various regions of Nepal from Friday through Sunday, urging high levels of vigilance. According to the latest update on Wednesday morning, the primary impact of the developing system is expected in the central and western parts of the country, senior hydrology expert Binod Parajuli stated. “While moderate effects will be felt nationwide, the main impact is anticipated in Gandaki, Lumbini, and Karnali provinces,” he explained.

The Ministry of Home Affairs and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority have confirmed that coordinated preparedness measures are underway at all administrative levels, from the federal government to local authorities. Meteorologist Binod Pokharel noted that dry winds are likely to limit the system’s intensity as it moves toward Nepal; however, upon arrival, it is expected to cause significant rainfall. “I have analyzed various forecast models, some of which predict precipitation exceeding 400 millimeters, with a maximum reaching up to 741 millimeters,” he shared on social media.

“This is an exceptionally large volume of rainfall, posing risks of heavy downpours in many areas or specific regions of Nepal, potentially leading to serious situations.” He indicated that many parts of Nepal could experience continuous and repeated heavy rains, compounded by the system’s slow movement, resulting in prolonged precipitation. Pokharel specified that heavy rainfall is projected in districts including Palpa, Kaski, Parbat, Arghakhanchi, Myagdi, East and West Nawalparasi, Lamjung, Rupandehi, and Manang.

Meteorologists classify rainfall intensity as follows: 50 to 99.99 millimeters in 24 hours is considered “heavy rain,” 100 to 199.99 millimeters as “very heavy rain,” and over 200 millimeters as “extremely heavy rain.” The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology forecasts moderate rain accompanied by thunder and lightning in many parts of Nepal. Meteorologists from the department reported a low-pressure system over the northern Andaman Sea and surrounding regions, situated in the central Bay of Bengal, as the source of this developing weather phenomenon.