Pakistan’s Risky Move in the Anti-Houthi Front

The prolonged civil war among insurgents has reignited, bringing a new dimension to Middle Eastern security dynamics. Following intensified attacks by Houthi rebels who declared blockades on Saudi Arabia’s oil tankers and ports, Saudi Arabia has activated a historic ‘Mecca Security Agreement’ with Pakistan and Turkey. Under this military pact, Pakistan has agreed to deploy troops to protect Saudi territory and holy sites, a move that could entangle Pakistan in a complex geopolitical and diplomatic situation.

Known officially as ‘Ansar Allah,’ the Houthis are predominantly Zaidi Shia Muslims from Yemen’s northwestern Saada province, comprising roughly one-third of Yemen’s population. Established after the unification of North and South Yemen in the 1990s, this group launched a devastating civil war by capturing the capital Sana’a in 2014. Designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, the Houthis hold anti-Western and anti-Israel ideologies. Since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict in October 2023, they have consistently launched missile and drone attacks on international commercial vessels traversing the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and Suez Canal, disrupting global supply chains and significantly impacting fuel prices.

Pakistan’s involvement in this Saudi-led front is viewed with extreme sensitivity. As a Sunni-majority nuclear power, Pakistan has maintained longstanding strategic and military ties with Saudi Arabia. For economically struggling Pakistan, Saudi Arabia stands as a major financial backer, having recently extended eight billion US dollars in aid and investment. Pakistan’s military previously guarded Saudi Arabia’s holy sites during the 1990 Iraqi invasion. However, in 2015, Pakistan’s parliament unanimously rejected participation in the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, opting to remain neutral.

This time, due to serious economic dependence and the Mecca agreement, Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir has committed to deploying troops. Analysts warn this military engagement could prove self-destructive for Pakistan, which currently faces border tensions with India, armed clashes along its Afghan border, and rising terrorism domestically. Deploying troops in Yemen’s complex conflict could place additional pressures on the military. Furthermore, Pakistan hosts the second-largest Shia Muslim population after Iran, sharing a border with the Iranian state.

Experts caution that Pakistani military involvement against the Houthis could spark significant sectarian tensions and Shia-Sunni communal violence within Pakistan. There are also concerns about damaging diplomatic ties with Iran. Pakistan’s vital fuel supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea could be jeopardized, as Iran and the Houthis may disrupt these channels at any time. Saudi Arabia aims to safeguard its ambitious economic projects and foreign investments with decisive action against the Houthi threat. Yet Pakistan appears intent on limiting its role to internal security and air defense within Saudi Arabia, avoiding direct combat in Yemen. Turkey’s willingness to commit militarily remains uncertain due to NATO obligations and border security concerns over Syria. As Pakistan seeks to preserve Saudi financial support, the risk of being drawn deeper into the ever-continuing Middle Eastern conflicts significantly increases. (With agency contributions)