This Year’s El Niño Likely to Become the Most Powerful in History
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has indicated a 70 percent probability that the developing “super El Niño” will become the most powerful ever recorded. Scientists have nearly confirmed that this intense El Niño could make 2027 the hottest year on record. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, described the event as extraordinary and noted that its intensity is expected to increase further in the coming months.
August 14, Kathmandu – NOAA’s forecast released on Thursday projects the ongoing “super El Niño” to become the strongest in recorded history, with an approximately 70 percent chance of achieving this status. Previously, it was expected to be among the “largest El Niños on record.” The updated forecast is driven by the rapid intensification of El Niño and various computer models predicting an even more powerful peak.
According to NOAA, this phenomenon is anticipated to reach its peak between the end of autumn and the start of winter. NOAA has maintained records of El Niño intensity since 1950, and current projections suggest this El Niño could surpass the powerful event of 1982–83. During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean rise significantly above average, releasing vast amounts of heat into the atmosphere and profoundly influencing global weather patterns.
NOAA’s report estimates that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific could increase by more than 2.5 degrees Celsius above average. This temperature is measured as a three-month average to smooth out short-term fluctuations. El Niño typically causes droughts in Indonesia and Australia and increased risk of heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of South America. Its effects vary widely in different parts of the world.
Climate change adds additional complexity: the average temperature of tropical oceans has risen over recent decades, potentially altering the traditional impacts of El Niño. NOAA is now employing a new index called the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which accounts for long-term ocean temperature increases to more accurately gauge El Niño’s true intensity. Despite this adjustment, scientists have noted that the current El Niño is intensifying at an unprecedented rate.
Daniel Swain emphasized that this is a highly unusual event that has already reached record levels of intensity, with further strengthening expected in the coming months. Scientists suggest that 2027 is very likely to become the hottest year ever recorded. However, they also caution that the impacts of El Niño should not be viewed simplistically; even the strongest El Niño in history does not guarantee extreme weather across all affected regions.
Nonetheless, there is a high likelihood of experiencing El Niño’s typical effects, especially during autumn and winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The United States could see unusually heavy rainfall from California through the southern states to Florida. Conversely, the Midwest is forecast to experience winter conditions that are warmer and drier than usual.
El Niño events raise the world’s average temperature, and when combined with long-term human-induced climate change, this extra warming could have significant implications for global temperatures next year. Scientists agree that this fierce El Niño will almost certainly make 2027 the hottest year on record. NOAA’s forecasts also suggest 2026 could become the hottest year so far, highlighting the accelerating trend in global temperatures.