Could Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan Forge a “Muslim NATO” Through the Mecca Pact?
Image source, Reuters
Published
Reading time: 5 minutes
It has been over a week since Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan signed a joint security agreement known as the ‘Mecca Pact’. Some analysts refer to this pact as the “Sunni Pact” or the “Muslim NATO.”
Some see it as a signal against countries like Iran and Israel, while others interpret it as a desire to reduce reliance on the United States for security.
However, since the full details of the agreement have not been disclosed, speculation and commentary have increased. Critics argue that differing national interests among excluded countries pose a significant challenge.
Some experts have raised major questions about the pact’s implications and context due to the absence of a written document.
So, what do we know about this agreement and what does it mean? What is clear, and what remains ambiguous?
“Muslim NATO”?
Image source, Reuters
The agreement states that if any of the signatory countries is attacked, all three will respond jointly. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan described the pact as “technically similar to NATO’s Article 5,” including commitments related to security.
However, analysts suggest that only real-world tests will reveal whether this pact will evolve into a full military alliance like NATO. For example, the reaction of Pakistan and Turkey if Saudi Arabia is attacked will reveal its impact.
Professor Sherhat Gebench from Kadir Has University’s Department of International Relations said, “Until the terms of the agreement are reviewed, how it will be implemented remains unclear.”
Gebench added that whereas NATO has long been dominated by US power in finances and armaments, this new pact is “an alliance of equals.” “That is both positive and negative,” he said, “because they resolve everything through negotiation and prioritize their own sovereignty in many areas.”
Allison Minor of the Atlantic Council agreed, telling the BBC, “Given the differing interests and strategies of the three countries, this alliance is unlikely to produce a serious and fully integrated military response like NATO.”
Whether it will become a reliable military alliance in the future remains uncertain, with open questions persisting.
Is This Targeted Against Iran?
Image source, Güven Yılmaz/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Some analysts interpret the Mecca Pact as a response to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
The signatories include two Sunni-majority countries, Pakistan and Turkey, both sharing borders with Iran. Also involved is Saudi Arabia, one of Iran’s regional competitors. From this perspective, some view it as an effort to encircle Iran on multiple fronts.
However, Turkish officials state that talks for this agreement began as early as December 2024, prior to the current conflicts. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar has explicitly stated it is not directed against any specific country.
An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, “There is no need to worry that this agreement targets Iran. The main conclusion of the three countries is to sign an accord that reduces dependence on US security guarantees.”
Who Benefits the Most?
Image source, Getty Images
All three countries stand to gain in various ways from the agreement, each adding different strengths to the alliance.
Saudi Arabia is a major economic power with vast financial resources, diplomatic influence, and large oil reserves. However, growing threats from Iranian missiles and drone attacks, Houthi rebel assaults, and disruptions along critical maritime routes have raised Saudi concerns.
Ricardo Gasco from the Istanbul Political Research Institute notes that Saudi Arabia will benefit most from the agreement. He explained that Turkey’s technological capabilities and Pakistan’s traditional military strength will help form a powerful deterrent within the alliance.
Turkey, a NATO member with significant military hardware and geopolitical and diplomatic influence, seeks to act as a bridge between NATO and Middle Eastern countries. Consequently, Turkey sees new opportunities for defense material exports and manufacturing through this pact.
Pakistan is also a military power and the only nuclear-armed country among the three. The alliance is built on long-standing relations and agreements between these nations.
Omar Karim from the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies notes that Pakistan will be able to increase its influence in the Middle East through this pact. Furthermore, its collaboration with Saudi Arabia will bring economic and defense benefits.
Allison Minor of the Atlantic Council identifies the greatest benefit as the political unity and enhanced diplomatic influence of the three countries.
What Does the Future Hold for This Alliance?
Image source, Reuters
This is a very important question.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated, “Our goal is to expand this alliance beyond just three countries. If possible, we want to unite all countries in the region under a single umbrella.”
Egypt is already part of the informal four-country group with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey and is therefore expected to join this new agreement.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called Egypt a “natural partner” and said it could eventually become a member. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelaty said they are “studying the agreement seriously.”
However, Ahmad Abdo of Chatham House noted that Egypt is cautiously considering joining under the leadership of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi because entry into this group could negatively affect its relations with other countries. Potentially affected nations include Iran, Israel, UAE, Greece, Cyprus, and India.
All signatory countries are aware of these risks because they are committed to advancing strategic alliances in this war-affected region.
This analysis is based on content from BBC Turkish and BBC Urdu, prepared by Global Journalism.