Flood in Rasuwa: Could the Damage Have Been Minimized? How Effective Was the Early Warning System?
Image Source, Reuters
On Wednesday, light to moderate rainfall was reported around Rasuwa. While the Department of Meteorology assessed it as normal rain, a flood triggered approximately 20 kilometers northeast of the Rasuwa Gadhi border area caused significant damage to lives and property.
Nepali officials reported that the flood resulted from a landslide of an ice block obstructing the river.
According to details released by the Department of Meteorology, within minutes the flood extensively affected the lower riparian areas.
“This event highlighted the critical importance of minute-by-minute and second-by-second alertness,” said Anil Pokharel, former chief of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority.
“We have many gaps in our internal and cross-border warning systems. Currently, there is no system for international information sharing. Within the country, too, reliable warning mechanisms for such events are lacking.”
At 8:50 AM, the Syaphrubesi hydrological monitoring station, located just below the Rasuwa Gadhi border, began reporting data.
From 9:15 AM, the Department of Meteorology issued early warnings urging residents in the riverbank and at-risk areas of Rasuwa, Nuwakot, Dhading, Gorkha, and Chitwan to exercise high vigilance.
During this time, approximately 679,295 SMS messages were sent through Nepal Telecom and Ncell networks to inform the public.
However, by 9:20 AM, the Betrawati monitoring station ceased reporting. Cities are located both upstream and downstream along the riverbank in this area.
Warning: Floods Could Recur
Image Source, EPA
Preliminary analysis by Nepal’s meteorological agencies using satellite imagery and data obtained from national and international organizations shows a glacier landslide in the border region has caused an extremely high flow surge.
Basanta Raj Adhikari, director of the Disaster Study Center under the Engineering Study Center at Tribhuvan University, shared video footage revealing water accumulation behind an ice-block landslide dam.
“That dam could gradually erode and release water, or it could suddenly burst. There is a critical need for heightened vigilance,” the geologist commented.
He emphasized the urgent necessity to assess the dam’s structural integrity.
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority issued a statement Thursday afternoon reporting the obstruction of the Lende River near 18 kilometers above Rasuwa Gadhi, resulting in the formation of a 0.11 square kilometer lake.
Preliminary satellite images captured on the morning of Bhadra 11 at 11:44 AM indicate an ongoing risk of a massive flood if the natural dam bursts.
The statement further calls for residents of lower riparian areas and all concerned to remain highly cautious and follow necessary safety measures.
Adhikari referenced the 2014 Jure landslide, noting how the Nepali Army resorted to controlled detonations to open the dam in a similar situation.
“Only after evaluating the dam’s stability can we determine if and when it might fail,” he stated.
Meteorologist Rojan Lamichhane from the Department of Meteorology indicated that while light rain was expected in upper Rasuwa on Thursday evening, conditions remained normal in Nuwakot and Dhading.
The sudden flood on Wednesday led to significant loss of life and property along the riverbanks.
At 11:20 AM, the Firkhe (Malekhu) hydrological station measured water levels above the alert level of 7 meters, and by 11:40 AM, the danger level of 8 meters was surpassed, reaching a peak of 10.48 meters before the station was swept away.
Similarly, at the Kalikhola hydrological monitoring station near Muglin, water levels crossed the danger threshold of 12.1 meters at 2:14 PM, peaking at 12.3 meters.
Analysis of flow measurements at Devghat on Wednesday estimates an additional volume of nearly 20 million cubic meters of floodwater from 2:10 PM to 6:00 PM beyond base flow, according to meteorological officials.
Was Information Received in Time?
On Wednesday, the Department of Meteorology sent phased SMS alerts via Votexoshi and Trishuli riverbank areas—including Timure, Syaphrubesi, Betrawati, Trishuli, Galchi, Malekhu, Muglin, Narayangadh, and surrounding settlements—urging residents to proceed to safer locations. However, feedback suggests the time allotted was insufficient for evacuation.
Geologist Adhikari stated, “This was a truly unprecedented event. Even China was unaware of it; otherwise, they would have informed us at the border crossing.”
“The event unfolded very rapidly. We were unable to prevent it, but efforts were made to disseminate warnings as quickly as possible.”
Image Source, Reuters
The official highlighted the need for increased investment in automated warning systems following this flood.
“In coming days, risk zones should be identified and monitored using remote sensing technology. Comprehensive geographical assessments to locate melting glacial lakes and potential landslide-prone areas are essential to establish ground stations,” the expert explained.
“These ground stations will provide real-time data on geographical events.”
Former Disaster Authority chief Pokharel emphasized the need for a comprehensive, integrated, and swift warning system rather than relying solely on SMS alerts for such emergencies.
“Settlements vulnerable to floods should be equipped with siren systems that ensure uniform real-time alerts across all communication media,” Pokharel said.
“Additionally, an inter-country information exchange system is lacking. Last year’s flood was a strong indication of this deficiency.”