Who Is Winning the Iran-US War? Who Has Benefited So Far?
Summary: The war initiated by the US against Iran on February 28 has now entered its third month, resulting in more than 3,600 deaths in Iran. In the Iran-Israel conflict, Israel has taken control of approximately 15% of Lebanese territory, displacing 600,000 people. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the war is causing the global economic growth rate to fall to 3.1% and inflation to rise.
Kathmandu, April 20: US President Donald Trump had promised a short and decisive conflict, but the war that began on February 28 appears to have taken a nearly opposite course after two months. The fighting has paused but not ended. Over 3,600 people have died in Iran, including more than 1,700 civilians. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas has said that if the war prolongs and oil prices remain high, global economic growth could drop to nearly 2%, signaling a global recession. Inflation, which was expected to decrease from 4.1% last year to 3.8%, is now forecasted to surpass 4.4%. Harvard economist Linda Bilmes estimates the US has spent nearly $1 trillion on the war, though the government has officially disclosed only $25 billion in expenditures.
China and Russia Benefit from the Conflict: China has strengthened its position amid the conflict, having already accumulated large oil reserves and invested for decades in alternative energy. The US’s weakness has provided China diplomatic advantages. Chinese oil and gas companies are profiting significantly; according to CNN, six major firms could earn up to $94 billion this year. Russia’s economy has also gained from the war, as rising prices of oil and fertilizer have increased its revenues. Following sharp oil price hikes, the US temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil supplies, further benefiting Russia. According to the International Energy Agency, Russia’s energy revenues nearly doubled from $9.75 billion in February to around $19 billion in March. China continues to accelerate investments in solar, wind, and hydroelectric power.
Expert Opinion: Melanie Sisson, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, observes that there is no clear winner in this war. The US has not gained strategic advantage, and the conflict impacts people across the globe. Residents of Iran, Lebanon, the Gulf countries, and even India have felt its consequences.
Israel Controls 15% of Lebanese Territory: Reports indicate that Israel has occupied roughly 15% of Lebanese land, maintaining this as a ‘buffer zone’ until Hezbollah is weakened. Senior journalist Nora Boustani explains that Lebanon’s biggest fear is that this area could remain under foreign control for an extended period. The region primarily extends up to the Litani River. Lebanese civilians have been caught in the decades-long conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. After a fragile ceasefire in February, the situation deteriorated when Israel assassinated Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prompting Hezbollah to launch attacks on Israel. In response, Israel conducted lethal air and ground operations in Lebanon aimed at eliminating Hezbollah. Lebanon’s Ministry of Health reports over 2,500 deaths from these attacks since March 2. Satellite images reveal that Israel applied a Gaza-like strategy in Lebanon to target entire villages, leading to the displacement of approximately 600,000 people from southern Lebanon. Israel has declared it will not permit displaced residents to return until threats from Hezbollah to northern Israel cease.
Impact on Gulf Economies: Gulf countries are not immune to the war’s effects. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been struck most frequently, suffering numerous missile and drone attacks by Iran. Despite a halt in attacks, significant damage has negatively affected the UAE’s key commercial and tourism hubs. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hurt the economies of Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait, disrupting oil, gas, and other supplies. The IMF has downgraded these countries’ economic growth prospects, warning that recessions could occur within the year. Millions of Nepali migrant workers in the region are also experiencing hardships due to the deteriorating economic situation.
Rising Costs and Public Hardship in the US: The conflict has led to increased prices of oil, air tickets, and various services in the US, as companies impose additional fuel surcharges. Inflation jumped from 2.4% in February to 3.3% in March, significantly eroding public confidence. According to the Brookings Institution, the US economy remains heavily dependent on oil, and underinvestment in renewable energy such as solar and wind has become a glaring vulnerability.
Global Economic Growth Slows: The IMF projects the global economic growth rate to decline from 3.3% to 3.1% this year. Sharp fertilizer price increases will intensify inflation in agriculturally dependent countries, where a large portion of incomes is spent on food.
Decline in Trump’s Popularity: The war poses a substantial challenge for Donald Trump, who pledged a swift resolution but neither Iran has capitulated nor the conflict has ended. One survey shows a 37% drop in his approval ratings. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initially gained some strategic advantage, but most Israelis now perceive the war as lacking a clear victory. Although the Iranian government has suffered setbacks, its new leadership appears more aggressive. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz continues to exert global pressure. (With agency contributions)