Rise in Electricity Production During Dry Season: Why Are There Concerns About Shortages in the Monsoon Season?
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Nepal is currently selling electricity to India while also purchasing power from there. Some experts have expressed concern that a major shift in this balance could cause a power shortage in the future.
According to data released by the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) on Monday, Nepal sold 290 megawatts of electricity to India while buying 80 megawatts from the neighbour.
Purchasing agreements with India do not include the option of buying electricity at night, yet Nepal currently faces no shortage during nighttime hours.
During the day, Nepal has been able to meet its electricity demand solely by buying power from India, allowing it to continue exporting electricity to the country.
However, in a new electricity purchase agreement with India that will come into effect in June 2026, concerns have been raised by some experts about the anticipated water shortages in Nepal and the potential challenges this could bring to electricity management.
Relief Provided by Nature
Image source, Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project
An official from Nepal Electricity Authority said, “Nature has currently granted Nepal relief,” resulting in no issues with electricity supply during the night.
Mohan Dangi, Senior Vice President of the Independent Power Producers’ Association Nepal (IPPAN), noted that electricity production this dry season has increased compared to last year.
Most of Nepal’s hydropower plants operate on a ‘run-of-the-river’ model, relying directly on river water flow, which results in decreased production during the winter season when water levels drop.
According to Senior Vice President Dangi, production is still lower than during the monsoon season and plants are not operating at full capacity.
“However, compared to last year, this year’s production is 10 to 15 percent higher,” Dangi said. “Our 7.5 megawatt project managed to sell electricity worth 2.2 million rupees more than last year.”
NEA officials stated that current rainfall and cooler temperatures have reduced demand while increasing production compared to previous years.
“Hence, it has become possible to sell more electricity to India than to buy from them,” one official said.
Why Are There Concerns About Reduced Production From the Monsoon Onward?
Image source, RSS
However, a weather forecast released last Friday by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology’s Climate Science Division has raised concerns.
The department predicts that from May 31 to October 1, nationwide rainfall is expected to be lower than usual.
Similarly, maximum and minimum temperatures are also forecasted to be higher than average.
Experts have stated that all these changes will directly affect hydropower projects.
Attempts to contact energy ministry officials, NEA’s Executive Director Dirghayu Kumar Shrestha, and spokesperson Rajan Dhakal for government assessments were unsuccessful.
Image source, BBC/Ashok Dahal
NEA’s Information Officer Sarvajit Kumar Chaudhary said he is not authorized to speak on the matter, and some officials declined to provide an official comment.
One official noted, “Although rainfall is expected to be below average and temperatures above, the extent of the change will determine the impact’s severity.”
He added that reduced electricity sales to India might decrease revenue for the authority and hydropower projects.
Senior Vice President Mohan Dangi also stated that it is premature to make definitive comments on this issue.
“A study has not been completed, this is a natural phenomenon everyone anticipates,” he said. “However, if we commit to selling electricity, we might find ourselves unable to supply the promised amount to the Nepal Electricity Authority.”
‘Penalties for Shortages’
Image source, Getty Images
Dangi explained that producers are required to pay penalties if they cannot supply the agreed electricity capacity, a condition he finds unreasonable.
According to the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), projects below 10 megawatts must declare their electricity sales one month in advance if they plan continuous production for a week or longer.
“During the monsoon season, when production exceeds the scheduled amount, the authority is forced to sell electricity at less than 50 percent of the price, even if it doesn’t want to,” Dangi said. “This results in price instability and leads to claims that the PPA is unbalanced.”
Currently, around 4,200 megawatts of electricity are connected to the transmission lines, with private sector projects contributing nearly 3,500 megawatts.
Total production from projects under 10 megawatts capacity may range between 1,200 to 1,500 megawatts.
“We demand that electricity purchase and sale operations be prioritized,” Dangi said. “Having to pay penalties when water levels are low is unjust, and natural causes should not be blamed on us.”
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