Are the US and Israel Preparing for Another Attack on Iran?

Iranian officials have warned the United States and Gulf countries about the potential for a new conflict. Mohammad Mokhber, advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, referenced Iranian attacks on US military bases in the Gulf region, stating, “Our recent retaliatory strike on US Central Command’s base was highly restrained, but such restraint will not always be maintained.” He added, “Iran has regarded these nations as friends and brothers for years, but they have sold their independence and handed over their countries and homes to the enemies of Palestine and Iran.”

Noor News, a media outlet affiliated with the Secretariat of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, cited a senior military official who wished to remain anonymous, stating that if Iran faces another attack, “locations that were not targeted during the 40-day war will now be prioritized.” Earlier, The New York Times quoted two anonymous Middle East officials indicating that the US and Israel are likely preparing for renewed attacks on Iran.

These preparations by the US and Israel have been described as the most extensive military readiness associated with a possible ceasefire. US Defense Secretary informed members of Congress this week that the Pentagon has plans for various scenarios, including restarting conflict if necessary and subsequent troop withdrawal. According to The New York Times, US officials said one option considered during former President Donald Trump’s tenure was a massive bombing of Iran’s military bases and infrastructure.

Another potential course of action involves a ground operation to remove Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles. These supplies were damaged by bombings of nuclear facilities during the war twelve years ago, which is a key consideration. As Trump’s visit to China and discussions with President Xi Jinping yielded no decisive outcome on the Iran conflict or reopening the Strait of Hormuz, speculation about possible US-Israeli military actions has increased.

Before departing for China last Tuesday, Trump warned that without an agreement, the US would be “devastated” by Iran. On the preceding Monday, he described the ceasefire with Iran as fragile. Following these remarks, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf declared that the Iranian armed forces are “ready to respond to any attack from the other side.” “Poor strategies and decisions always lead to negative consequences. We are prepared for every option and will surprise them,” he tweeted on social media platform X.

Iran’s official news agency IRNA reported that Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi arrived in Tehran “without prior notice.” According to BBC Persian, citing sources from IRNA, Naqvi arrived only a few hours ago and is scheduled to meet with several Iranian officials. Pakistan has played a mediatory role in ongoing ceasefire talks between Iran and the United States. Recently, senior Iranian and US officials held peace negotiations in Islamabad; however, these talks have yet to yield definitive results.

Due to escalating differences, second-phase negotiations between Iran and the US have not taken place. A month ago, the Pakistani Interior Minister visited Iran alongside Iranian Army Chief Asim Munir. Regarding talks with European countries, Iranian state television reported that European nations are negotiating with Iran to obtain permission for their vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz. According to BBC Persian, Iranian TV networks have broadcast analysis on this topic, noting, “Given that ships are arriving from East Asian countries—especially China, Japan, and Pakistan—European countries have also initiated discussions with the IRGC to secure passage permissions.” The identities of these European countries have not been disclosed.

Since the outbreak of war with the US and Israel on February 28, Iran has effectively closed off this vital waterway. Controlled by Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has had a significant impact on global oil and gas markets. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports pass through this route. In addition, essential goods are also transported via this strategic maritime passage.