2026 FIFA World Cup: Why Are 8 of the World’s 10 Most Populous Countries Absent?
On June 17, when Argentina’s renowned player Lionel Messi calmly scored his first goal in the FIFA World Cup by outwrowing Algeria’s goalkeeper, the packed crowd erupted in excitement and celebration. However, not a single person in that crowd was from Argentina. The enthusiastic supporters, jumping, dancing, and wearing the “Albiceleste” (white and sky blue) jerseys, were actually local residents of Bangladesh. They had gathered at an open-air public viewing event in the capital city, Dhaka. Similar lively street gatherings were also organized in cities across India and Indonesia. These fans appeared to embrace Messi and his compatriots as if they were their own national team. This may be because their own national teams have repeatedly failed to qualify for the World Cup.
Among the world’s ten most populous countries, only two (the United States and Brazil) are participating in the current tournament. Russia and Nigeria have previously competed in many World Cup editions. China and Indonesia, while ranking among the most populous nations globally, have only appeared once each in the World Cup. Meanwhile, India, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Pakistan—the other highly populous countries—have yet to participate in the tournament, with participation still a distant dream. Technically, India qualified for the 1950 World Cup in Brazil but withdrew less than a month before the competition began.
“It is frankly unacceptable for a country with millions of football fans to be so far behind in football,” said Bangladeshi actress, writer, and football enthusiast Adite Karim. So why can a country’s population size not be relied upon as an accurate measure of football success? Does size truly matter? Theoretically, a larger population provides a greater pool of potential players to select from. Of the eight countries that have won the World Cup so far, seven—Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain—have relatively large populations. The only exception is Uruguay.
However, British academic and economist Stephen Shmansky explains that population size is not the sole crucial factor determining football success. Co-author of the acclaimed data-driven sports analysis book Soccernomics, Shmansky notes, “Football, in many ways, operates like a national economy. For a country to prosper, it needs a workforce, but it also requires capital and infrastructure.” “In football terms, this means access to quality training facilities and the ability to identify talented players.”