KP Sharma Oli: Will He Step Down as UML Leader or Seek a New Left Unity?
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Following the electoral defeat, calls for leadership change within the CPN-UML have intensified, especially while party chairman KP Sharma Oli remains in police custody.
The election of the parliamentary party leader and statements made by the elected Ram Bahadur Thapa have further strengthened these sentiments, with dissatisfaction becoming publicly expressed.
However, Oli’s close associates have tried to defend his leadership against attacks from within the party during his time in custody. After his release, Oli, still hospitalized, underwent liver surgery on Monday.
Supporters of leadership change among UML leaders and activists are reportedly preparing to raise the issue more forcefully now that Oli has stabilized.
“If we want to develop into a dynamic party by correcting past mistakes, the current leadership must step aside. There is no alternative,” said UML leader Tank Karki.
“It is necessary to conduct a comprehensive self-assessment at every level of the party, and to accelerate this process accordingly.”
Considering the current situation, he added, it is essential to seek alternative leadership for the party to progress as a strong and influential force.
Voluntary Resignation or Forced Exit?
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Only a few months ago, Oli won the UML party presidency with a large majority at the party’s general convention.
Most top-level leaders close to him secured victories in the elections, but many now feel that the party cannot progress under Oli’s leadership and that a restructuring is necessary. This awareness increases pressure on Oli to step aside, notes writer and commentator Jhalak Subedi.
“Other leaders also feel that the party is weakening and they must take steps to protect themselves. In such scenarios, Oli is unlikely to step down voluntarily,” Subedi explains, “For the party to become strong, many leaders have to be removed, but as long as Oli stays, others cannot be removed.”
Supporters of leadership change have announced plans to initiate a signature campaign to call for a special general convention if Oli does not voluntarily relinquish leadership.
Leader Tank Karki believes a voluntary path from Oli would be the easiest solution. “Otherwise, there is no alternative to a special general convention,” he said.
There are factions who want to create pressure to facilitate a dignified exit, but close allies of Oli consider even a voluntary step down as a “forced departure.”
More Challenges Than Favorable Conditions for Oli
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According to political science professor Krishna Pokharel, the probability that Oli will resign easily is low, but demands for party generational change and a special general convention are expected to increase. He anticipates support from former President Bidya Bhandari in this regard.
“However, at present, the UML appears to be in a deadlock, and it seems unlikely that a special general convention will change the leadership in the near future. The party may remain stuck in confusion for some time,” said Professor Pokharel.
Although Oli was released from police custody, some UML leaders fear the government might pursue further cases against him, including allegations relating to the deaths of youths during the Gen Z movement.
The government might also intensify investigations into issues such as Giribandhu Tea Estate, procurement of medical supplies during the COVID-19 pandemic, and fake Bhutanese refugee controversies. Some UML leaders have made these assessments.
According to analyst Jhalak Subedi, under such circumstances, the party may seek to use strong opposition, as seen during Oli’s earlier arrest, as a tool to defend him against upcoming cases.
However, political scientist Pokharel predicts further adverse developments for Oli in the coming days.
“In this scenario, his political future is nearly over; he will have to choose his options in a dignified manner. People may claim retaliatory motives in various issues, but the civilized public will not accept that, and party activists will eventually question how long they can continue,” he said.
Can ‘Left Unity’ Become a New Protective Shield?
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UML leader Tank Karki says the possibility of Oli voluntarily opening the path after the electoral defeat seems low.
Since the leadership is unlikely to step down easily, he believes the lower committees must open paths for direct intervention.
So what is the alternative? “The party should be restructured not based on an individual-centered model, but to reflect the party’s charter and social realities while collectively addressing today’s challenges,” he added.
In the February elections, alongside UML, the power of other leftist parties like the CPN has also significantly weakened.
The call for leadership change sparked by the Gen Z movement intensified even more after the election results.
Some speculate that amid efforts to remove Oli from within the party and the risks of various scandals, a renewed left unity initiative could be raised again by leaders like Prachanda and Oli.
Writer and commentator Subedi does not dismiss this possibility either.
“Madhav Nepal and Prachanda have maintained their leadership amid challenges by uniting their parties,” Subedi notes about potential maneuvers by Prachanda and Oli to protect their positions, “Since both have committed to maintaining leadership until the unity convention, it will be difficult for lower leaders to oppose them openly. Given the circumstances, this should not be surprising.”
Since the call for leadership change arose within the CPN-Maoist Center, the unity with Madhav Nepal appears to have been reactivated. Both leaders continue their party leadership.
Political scientist Pokharel also believes that due to increasing challenges, Oli may seek the path of leftist unity.
“If the risks exceed tolerable limits, he will try to sustain himself through left polarization and integration,” he said, “However, this is unlikely to dissolve the leadership as they are no longer compelling political figures.”