Which Iranian Power Is the US Negotiating With?
This report follows a review of the latest news. Iran is reportedly exploring the possibility of engaging in peace talks with the United States in Pakistan, although no final decision has been made yet. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, managing the movement of ships. Notably, there are visible disagreements between the Iranian government and the IRGC regarding negotiations with the US, with the IRGC asserting its dominance within the country. (April 21, Kathmandu)
On Tuesday, April 21, a senior Iranian official stated that Iran is considering participating in peace talks with the US in Pakistan. According to Fars News Agency, affiliated with the IRGC, Major General Abdullahi said in Persian, “The IRGC has exhausted Israel and the US to the extent that they are compelled to demand a ceasefire.”
However, prior to this, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, had declared that Iran would not accept talks amidst threats from US President Donald Trump. Just on Monday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated there is no decision yet on engaging in talks with the US. Meanwhile, President Masoud Pezeshkian stressed the need to employ all diplomatic means to reduce tensions, but expressed concern that recent US actions have increased mistrust. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated a somewhat softer stance, explaining that all aspects of the relationship with the US will be reviewed to formulate future strategies.
Diverging Views
On Monday, Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Azizi also mentioned continuing dialogue with the US but emphasized the necessity of respecting Iran’s borders. These contrasting statements within 24 hours highlight the uncertainty over Iran’s ultimate desire to pursue talks. The first phase of talks took place on April 11, following a two-week ceasefire agreement that ended after just one day. This situation obscures clarity about who holds the ultimate decision-making power within Iran.
Donald Trump has said that Iran’s new leaders are not hardliners of the old guard and appearing more open to dialogue.
Who Is Making the Decisions?
Trump stated on Monday that Iran’s new leaders, if clever, could lead to a brighter, more prosperous future for the country, though their identities remain unclear. Activists note that the peace process with the US has sometimes appeared promising but at other times marked by confusion and instability. This raises the critical question: whom exactly is the US negotiating with in Iran? Who is making the decisive calls about opening or closing the Strait of Hormuz? Is it President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Speaker Qalibaf, or the IRGC?
Iranian affairs expert Saeed Golkar told The Wall Street Journal that currently there is no central figure in Iran who commands unified control over the entire country, which contributes to the prevailing uncertainty.
Is the IRGC the Most Powerful?
On Friday, April 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be fully open to all commercial shipping. However, hours later, the IRGC declared it would maintain its control over the Strait as long as the US blockade remains in place. Then, on Saturday, April 18, reports emerged of gunfire directed at two ships flying the Indian flag, with the IRGC navy preventing them from passing through the Strait. This directly contradicted Araghchi’s statement, confirming that the Strait remains closed under IRGC control.
Foreign affairs expert Harsh Pant commented, “There are differences between the Iranian government and the IRGC. The IRGC is intent on maintaining its dominance, and currently no one controls it in Iran.” International relations specialist Smita Sharma added, “There are few figures like Araghchi in Iran capable of negotiating with the US, but even they are being marginalized.” She further explained, “Araghchi has been humiliated, and IRGC video clips have ridiculed him.”
The Role of Qalibaf
Before the talks, Iran posed challenges about negotiations. Later, talks proceeded, but Speaker Qalibaf described them as having ‘‘emptiness.’’ According to The Guardian on March 23, back-channel talks brokered by Egypt occurred between Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Abbas Araghchi, which Qalibaf dismissed, branding the US as untrustworthy. A day after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on March 1, Qalibaf declared, “The US and Israel have crossed a red line and must pay the price.” His harsh rhetoric targeted Trump and Netanyahu, accusing them criminally on state media. However, six weeks later on April 11, Qalibaf led the Iranian delegation in high-level talks—the first since 1979. Although Qalibaf has been the Iranian face of negotiations, his firm stance against the US has fostered uncertainty, and many experts view successful peace talks as unlikely.
Have Peace Talks Angered Hardliners in Iran?
Hardline groups were not enthusiastic about the initial phase of talks between the US and Iran. They were more encouraged when the Strait of Hormuz was shut down. They believe Iran must continue the war as it has effectively pressured the US and Israel. Reports from Tehran indicate that after the ceasefire announcement, hardliners burned US and Israeli flags. Some Basij militia members under the IRGC stayed awake at night protesting the decision and confronted the Foreign Ministry. This illustrates the fundamental divergence between the IRGC and the Iranian government’s positions at that time.
Smita Sharma noted, “Trump’s frequently changing statements have strengthened hardline forces in Iran because they have once again convinced the public that America is not trustworthy.”